아사드와 아랍월드 (WSJ)

아랍국가의 정체성은 무슬림이며 무슬림의 정체성은 이슬람 안에서의 형제주의이다. 기독교의 박애주의와는 다른 결을 가지는데, 예수의 무한한 사랑에 바탕을 둔 원래 기독교와는 다르게 이슬람 안에서 하나의 형제와 가족이 되는 선택적 박애주의라고 볼 수 있을 것이다.  

 

아사드는 시아파의 맹주인 이란의 형제 혹은 아우 국가의 역할을 해왔다. 영국의 식민지 통치 방식에 의해 박해받던 시리아의 종파가 다수인 수니파를 누르고 시리아라는 지역을 장악하는 로또를 맞았으니, 영국과 서구의 입맛에 맛게 행동해 왔던 것이 사실이다. 즉슨 자국의 수니파를 누리고, 철권 통치를 하며, 수니와 시아라는 분쟁의 한 역할을 맡으며 아랍 그리고 중동의 무슬림의 힘이 하나로 뭉쳐지지 못하게 하는 역할을 한 것이다. 

 

그런데 2011년 시리아 내전이 나름 공식과도 같은 대외 정책에 천지개벽할 변화를 몰고 왔다. 러시아와 가까운 아사드를 축출하기로 서구권에서 결정이 되고 아사드가 축출될 뻔한 수많은 고비들을 거치고 마침내 그 자리를 지키게 되자 아사드에게 그 정치적 생명이 연장될 확실한 기회이자 보증이 생긴 것이다. 

 

아래 기사를 보면, 아랍이 하나로 뭉쳐지고 있다는 것이 눈에 뚜렷하게 보인다. 최근 사우디와 이란이 중국의 중재아래 평화 무드를 만들고 있다. 그 동안 구 대영제국과 대체로 같은 외교노선을 타는 미국의 대 중동 정책에 겁에 질린 개처럼 서로를 향해 미친듯이 짖었던 사우디와 이란 그리고 수니와 시아파 국가들이 이제 화해와 화합의 제스처를 서로에게 보내고 있다.

 

이 것은 미국 그리고 서구의 예상치 못한 아랍 형제애의 굴기라고 할 만한 것이며, 아랍 세계 뿐 아니라 각기 다른 문명권 역시 미국에 대한 반감과 2인자 중국의 회유에 따라 각자의 목소리를 내고 자신의 고요의 길을 찾는 것이다. 물론 사무엘 헌팅턴의 구분한 문명의 충돌이 가정한 문화권의 구분이 절대적으로 맞지 않겠지만, 세계화가 힘을 잃어가고 각지역의 강자들이 지난 문명의 지도를 중심으로 미래의 비전과 대안을 제시한다는 점은 명확한 이 시대의 흐름이라 할 것이다. 

 

영국을 그 시작으로 한 앵글로섹슨의 200년 천하도 태어나고 성장하고 성숙하고 퇴색하는 자연의 환경의 변화에 따라 서서히 그 명맥을 다해 가는 것이 아닌가 싶다. 아직 그들의 제대로 된 반격이 없었으니 아주 조심스럽게 말이다. 

 

14.04.23

 

원문 https://www.nytimes.com/2023/04/13/world/middleeast/assad-syria-middle-east.html

After Shunning Assad for Years, the Arab World Is Returning Him to the Fold

President Bashar al-Assad of Syria was isolated for years after brutally crushing his country’s Arab Spring uprising. But in most Arab capitals today, the only question is how — not whether — they should deal with him again.

 

A photograph released by the United Arab Emirates presidential court showing President Bashar al-Assad of Syria, left, and the Emirati ruler, Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates, last month.Credit...United Arab Emirates Presidential Court /EPA, via Shutterstock

 

By Vivian Nereim, Raja Abdulrahim and Edward Wong

April 13, 2023Updated 4:25 p.m. ET

6 MIN READ

Saudi Arabia, like many other Arab states, had refused to engage with President Bashar al-Assad of Syria for more than a decade after he violently crushed his country’s Arab Spring uprising — bombing, gassing and torturing his own people in a conflict that morphed into a long-running war that is still in progress.

So when Syria’s foreign minister arrived in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, it seemed to put to rest any notion that Mr. al-Assad’s regime would remain isolated in the Middle East.

The Saudi foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, welcomed Mr. al-Assad’s emissary, Faisal Mekdad, with a smile. In a joint statement, the countries said they had discussed steps to facilitate “the return of Syria to its Arab fold,” and would start procedures to resume consular services and flights. Also this week, Tunisia formally re-established diplomatic relations with Syria, naming an ambassador to Damascus.

“Assad remaining in power and Arab normalization with Damascus seems to be a foregone conclusion at this point,” said Anna Jacobs, a senior Gulf analyst for the International Crisis Group. “The U.S. and Europe have made it clear that they do not agree with Arab states normalizing with the Assad regime, but there doesn’t seem to be much they can do about it.”

 

On Friday, officials from the Gulf countries, Jordan, Egypt and Iraq will meet in Saudi Arabia to discuss Syria, attempting to coordinate policy ahead of an Arab League summit next month hosted by Saudi Arabia. A Syrian representative could be invited for the first time since the Syrian conflict began 12 years ago.

Arab states cut ties with Mr. al-Assad years ago as he laid siege to entire neighborhoods and towns in an effort to defeat the rebels, oversaw a prison system rife with torture and mass executions and sent millions of refugees fleeing to neighboring countries.

There is little consensus among them about how they should deal with Syria — and what concessions they might demand in return for rebuilding relations — but the direction is clear.

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A photograph released by Saudi state media showing Syria’s foreign minister, Faisal Mekdad, left, meeting with Saudi Arabia’s deputy foreign minister, Waleed El Khereiji, in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, on Wednesday.Credit...Saudi Press Agency, via Reuters

A gradual shift actually began years ago, as the Syrian war dragged on and Mr. al-Assad clung to power. Some regional rulers saw the reset of relations with him as inevitable as early as 2018, when the United Arab Emirates re-established diplomatic ties.

 

U.S. pressure helped stop more countries from following suit, said Mohammed Alaa Ghanem, head of policy for the Syrian American Council, a Washington-based advocacy group that opposes normalization with the Assad regime. In 2019, the United States passed legislation imposing additional sanctions on the Syrian government, creating another barrier.

And crucially, the region’s political heavyweights, including Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt, were still reluctant to engage with Mr. al-Assad.

Saudi Arabia had initially supported some Syrian rebel groups fighting against Mr. al-Assad’s forces, supplying them with funding and weapons in covert coordination with the United States and hosting Syrian opposition members in the Saudi capital, Riyadh. The kingdom’s officials viewed Mr. al-Assad as a pawn of Iran, their longtime regional rival and one of Mr. al-Assad’s closest allies.

Since then, the Middle East has gone through a geopolitical reordering.

A series of Iran-backed attacks on Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates — combined with a perception that the United States was either incapable of, or uninterested in, protecting its Gulf partners from Iran — pushed both countries to deal with Iran more directly. Their effort to de-escalate tensions and shield their economies culminated last month in Saudi Arabia and Iran striking a deal to resume diplomatic relations after seven years of open enmity.

Now, instead of trying to isolate Iran, Saudi Arabia is pursuing a multifaceted strategy that mixes engagement with Iran with efforts to counter its influence across the region, including in Syria — where Iran has supported Mr. al-Assad throughout the war. This week, Saudi officials traveled to Yemen for peace talks with the Houthis, Iran-backed rebels who have been fighting a Saudi-led coalition since 2015.

 

 

An Arab League meeting in Cairo last month.Credit...Khaled Elfiqi/EPA, via Shutterstock

Middle Eastern states have various interests in Syria.

Millions of Syrian refugees fled to neighboring Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey. Some countries, like Iraq, would like to open trade routes through Syria. Others would like to curb illegal ‌trade; the drug Captagon, an amphetamine, is trafficked from Syria to the rest of the Middle East, with a large market in Saudi Arabia. ‌

 

“Every country in the neighborhood has outstanding issues with Syria that need to be discussed and negotiated,” said Joshua Landis, director of the Center of Middle East Studies at the University of Oklahoma.

Even political figures in Turkey — for many years the most stalwart backer of the rebels seeking to drive Mr. al-Assad from power — have signaled a potential turnaround. Senior Turkish officials, including the defense minister and the intelligence chief, met with their Syrian counterparts in recent months.

The change in tone is underpinned by Turkish domestic politics; many Turks have grown frustrated with the large number of Syrians in their country. In the run-up to the Turkish presidential election scheduled for May 14, all four candidates have spoken about finding ways for Syrians to return home.

The prospect of losing safe havens in Turkey or the Gulf states is a frightening one for many Syrians, particularly those who oppose Mr. al-Assad.

“We meet with the various regional and international parties and remind everyone of the dangers of hastening unconditional normalization with the criminal regime of Bashar al-Assad,” said Riyad Hijab, a former Syrian prime minister and the most senior politician to defect during the war. He is now based in Qatar, one of the few Arab countries that still strongly opposes re-establishing ties with Syria.

The Qatari prime minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman, said on state television on Thursday that his country won’t take any steps toward Mr. al-Assad without a political solution to the conflict there.

“The Syrian people are still displaced; innocent people are in prison,” he said.

A devastating earthquake that hit northwestern Syria in February turned out to be a political boon for Mr. al-Assad, triggering fears from his opponents that it could be the start of his reintegration in the international community with virtually no consequences for abuses during the war.

 

In the aftermath of the quake, Arab officials met with Mr. al-Assad and sent planeloads of aid. And the United States eased banking restrictions for six months to allow relief to flow freely to Syria.

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Syrians in the town of Atarib, in Aleppo Province, protesting the lack of international aid after a devastating earthquake in February.Credit...Emily Garthwaite for The New York Times

But so far, there is no unified Arab position on Syria, Mr. Hijab said. Each country is following its own calculus.

On Wednesday, Mr. Mekdad and Prince Faisal discussed humanitarian aid, prerequisites for Syrian refugees to return to their homes safely and cooperation to combat drug trafficking, according to the joint statement. They also addressed the need for the Syrian state to end “external interference,” likely a veiled reference to Iran.

Egypt appears hesitant to embrace Mr. al-Assad. But earlier this month, Mr. Mekdad met with his Egyptian counterpart in Cairo — the first visit to Egypt by a Syrian foreign minister in more than a decade.

As the attitude toward Syria in the region has shifted, the administration of President Biden has taken a more hands-off approach.

The United States has no plans to normalize relations with Syria itself or to lift the sanctions it has imposed. In a briefing last month, the assistant secretary of state for Near Eastern affairs, Barbara Leaf, said that Mr. al-Assad’s government “deserves to be treated as the rogue that it is.”

 

Nevertheless, if Arab states are reaching out to Mr. al-Assad, the American strategy is to urge them to “get something for that engagement” in return, she said. She cited ending the Captagon drug trade from Syria as one demand countries should make.

 

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Refugees displaced during a Syrian government offensive living in a sprawling tented camp on a hill above the city of Afrin in 2021.Credit...Ivor Prickett for The New York Times

Other requests could include reducing the Iranian military presence in Syria and setting conditions that allow Syrian refugees to safely return home — although American officials are skeptical that Mr. al-Assad would comply.

“Assad is famous for promising but not delivering,” said James Jeffrey, who was the U.S. special representative on Syria during the Trump administration.

In March, Mr. Jeffrey along with a group that included former American officials sent a letter to President Biden and Secretary of State Antony Blinken that accused the American government of “neglecting Syria policy.” It criticized the Biden administration for not forcefully dissuading Arab nations from re-establishing relations with Syria.

“Opposing regime normalization in word only is not enough, as tacitly allowing it is shortsighted and damaging to any hope for regional security and stability,” the letter said.

Anwar al-Bunni, a Syrian human rights lawyer based in Germany, said it did not surprise him when countries like the Emirates and Saudi Arabia — authoritarian monarchies that have crushed domestic dissent — changed their approach to Syria.

“They were always against establishing democracy in Syria,” he said. “The difference is that yesterday they were wearing a mask. Today they removed it.”