6월 중순 미국 경제 동향

6월 기준, 40년 만의 최고라는 성적표를 받은 인플레이션과 이은 디플레이션의 공포로 인한 불황의 전조가 각종 수치에서 역대급의 경제 위기와 비교되고 있다. 

 

금리 - 미연준이 98년 아시아발 금융위기가 일어나기 전 인플레이션을 겨냥한 선제적 방어로 올렸던 94년 이후로 처음 자이언트 스텝 인상을 심각히 고려중. 

 

가상화페 - 금일 기준으로 비트코인 전일 대비 4.2%가 빠져, 2020년 3월 이후로 최저가. 가상화페시장 전체적으로 무려 1조 달러가 빠짐.

 

전문가 - 뱅크오브어메리카글로벌의 최근 주요펀드메니저를 대상으로 한 조사에 따르면 73%가 향후 전망을 부정적으로 보며, 이는 94년 이후 최저치임.(94년, 98년, 닷컴위기, 2008년 리먼브라더스 사태, 코로나사태와 비슷하거나 더 부정적인 전망) 대부분 응답자는 인플레이션이 내년이 되어야 끝날 것으로 예상하고, 계속 그 여파가 남을 것으로 봄. 

 

장단기 국채 - 2년물과 10년물의 국채금리가 4월에 이어서 최근 다시 한 번 역전됨. (리먼브라더스사태 일 주일 후에 역전되었었음) 탄광의 카나리아로써 불황의 전조현상으로 보기도 하지만, 장기국채금리도 오르고 있으므로 일시적인 현상이라고 보기도 함. 

 

가솔린 - 미평균 가솔린 가격이 5.01 달러로 역대 최고치임. 전쟁 중에 있는 러시아는 말할 것도 없고, 세계 주요 생산국들이 세계 경기 문제로 생산량을 줄이고 있는 것이 그 문제의 시작이며, 크루드 오일 가격의 인상이 인플레이션의 큰 악재중 하나 임.

 

 

원문 https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-dow-jones-bitcoin-fed-rates-06-14-2022?mod=hp_lead_pos1 

Stock Market News Live: Wall Street on Track to Edge Higher

Stock Market News Live: Wall Street on Track to Edge Higher

 

U.S. stock-index futuresSource: FactSetAs of June 14, 6:35 a.m. ET

June 13June 1400.250.500.751.001.251.501.752.00%Nasdaq-100S&P 500

U.S. stock futures pointed to a slightly higher open on Wall Street on Tuesday, after the S&P 500 slid into a bear market on fears that red-hot inflation will prompt more aggressive rate increases from the Federal Reserve.

Cryptocurrencies continued to drop, with bitcoin falling below $23,000 to its lowest level since late 2020, as investors dumped their most speculative holdings.

All eyes this week will be on the Fed's interest-rate decision on Wednesday, with officials considering a larger-than-expected 0.75-percentage-point increase.

Markets Price in Supersized Rate Increase

By Alex Frangos

Futures markets early Tuesday ascribed a 96.5% probability that the Federal Reserve will raise rates 0.75 percentage points at its meeting Wednesday. That's up from a roughly one-third chance on Monday and a 4% chance a week ago, according to CME Group data.

The change of heart came after The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday that the Fed was likely to consider the 0.75 percentage point rate rise this week. Such a move would take the Fed's policy rate to a range between 1.5% and 1.75%. It is currently at 0.75% to 1%.

The Fed, which normally moves 0.25 percentage points at a time and occasionally 0.5 percentage points, is responding to a string of troubling inflation reports. The central bank last raised rates 0.75 percentage points in 1994 to pre-empt a potential rise in inflation.

 

 

Bitcoin Prices Slides as Crypto Rout Builds

By Caitlin Ostroff

A selloff in cryptocurrencies deepened Tuesday, with bitcoin’s value briefly falling below $21,000. Bitcoin, the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell as low as $20,834.50 before rising back to about $22,300 at 5:30 a.m. ET Tuesday, according to CoinDesk.

The decline still leaves bitcoin about 4.2% lower than Monday, when it suffered its worst day since March 2020.

Cryptocurrencies have come under pressure alongside the broader stock market as investors worry that higher interest rates from major central banks will curtail easy-money policies that have helped push more speculative assets higher.

The slide in digital assets this week has pushed the collective value of cryptocurrencies below $1 trillion.

Ether, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, fell 3.6% Tuesday from its Monday level at 5 p.m. ET.

BITCOIN USDBTCUSD(COINDESK)

22429.53-821.18-3.53%▼

 

 

Investors Most Pessimistic About Economy Since 1994

By Joe Wallace

Investors are gloomier about the world economy than they have been for nearly three decades, according to a survey of fund managers by Bank of America Global Research.

The bank asked more than 260 investors managing about $750 billion in assets whether the economy would strengthen. A net minus 73% thought not, the lowest score in a series dating back to 1994. Most respondents thought inflation rates would fall over the next year, but said it would remain high by historical standards.

Investors said the corporate outlook is also darkening. A net minus 72% said global profits would weaken--the lowest reading since September 2008, when Lehman Brothers went bankrupt. Similarly low scores were recorded at the start of the Covid-19 pandemic, during the dotcom bust and when the blowup of Long-Term Capital Management almost caused a financial crisis in 1998.

To hedge against inflation, investors have piled into bets on commodities including oil, investors told BofA. The second most crowded trade, they said, was betting on a stronger dollar.

The survey closed the day before data published Friday showed consumer prices in the U.S. rising at their fastest pace in more than 40 years.

 

29 min ago

SIX Digital Exchange Postpones Crypto Services Launch

By Margot Patrick

Implosions in the crypto world pushed Switzerland’s stock exchange to postpone rolling out a key piece of infrastructure on its SIX Digital Exchange.

SDX, part of SIX, planned to offer banks and hedge funds custody services and staking through a new unit, a big move forward in Swiss efforts to build out a fully regulated crypto market. Some Swiss banks dipped a toe already into crypto with custody or trading for clients, but the new SDX services are expected to be a gateway for more of the world’s rich and others to add crypto to their portfolios.

SDX on Tuesday said the plans will go ahead, but "given current market conditions, SDX has taken the decision to postpone its upcoming crypto services until further notice.”

SDX wants to offer the services to build out its aspirations for a flourishing market in all types of digital assets. The exchange launched in September after getting regulatory approval. It can only be accessed by banks or other regulated financial companies, not directly by retail investors. It has said its aim is to bring high Swiss standards to the business of trading, settling and storing digital assets.

 

 

 

47 min ago

U.S. Yield Curve Inverts Briefly, Flashing Recession Signal

By Anna Hirtenstein

The U.S. Treasury yield curve inverted overnight, a closely-watched metric that is considered to be an indicator of an upcoming recession.

The yield on a benchmark 2-year government bond rose as high as 3.431% on Tuesday in Asian trading, reaching above the yield of the 10-year equivalent. Later in the European morning, the 2-year yield eased down to 3.299%, below the 10-year yield which was at 3.322%.

The yield curve also inverted in April, with the 2-year yield closing above the 10-year yield for the first time since 2019.

In normal times, borrowing for longer maturities costs more to compensate the bondholder for the risk of inflation in the future. Shorter term bonds, which are at less risk of having their value eroded by inflation, sport lower yields. Thus the yield curve in good times is upward sloping.

These days, investors expect the Fed to push up short term rates to fight roaring inflation. Longer term rates are also rising, but more slowly, on the expectations that those rate rises will eventually weigh on economic growth down the road.

Concerns about high inflation and rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will tighten monetary policy aggressively sent shorter-dated yields up sharply in recent days. The 2-year yield took the biggest two-day jump since the week after Lehman Brothers collapsed, according to Deutsche Bank. Longer-dated yields have risen as well, but not as quickly.

Some investors are skeptical about whether a temporary intraday yield curve inversion should be taken seriously as a recession indicator.

“You have to see a sustained period when the yield curve inverts in order to give a proper signal. One day here and there doesn’t really work,” said Colin Graham, head of multiasset strategy at Robeco.

 

 

 

 

Oil Price Gains, Adding Pressure on Inflation

By Joe Wallace

Tight global oil supplies are fueling price gains that threaten to goose inflation already running at its fastest rate in more than four decades.

Brent-crude futures, the global benchmark, headed toward a 16th gain in 19 trading sessions Tuesday, adding 0.8% to trade at $123.24 a barrel. They have climbed 6.4% in June.

Oil is shrugging off pressure on broader markets—a concern for investors worried that inflation will push central banks to raise interest rates at a faster pace. Whereas the S&P 500 slid into a bear market Monday, Brent edged higher. Average retail gasoline prices in the U.S. meanwhile reached an all-time high of $5.01 a gallon, according to AAA figures dating back to 2000.

Disarray in Libya’s huge oil sector is the latest catalyst for higher crude prices, analysts said.

In normal times Libya accounts for more than 1% of global production, but protests have led to the closure of several major oil-exporting ports in the North African nation. Oil output has all but halted, Oil Minister Mohamed Oun told Bloomberg Monday.

The outage is inopportune for oil consumers as stockpiles of fuels such as diesel and gasoline are running low by historical standards. Supply concerns will boost prices for some time, said ING Groep strategist Warren Patterson, pointing to uncertainties over Russian production and constraints on OPEC's ability to pump more oil.

For U.S. energy companies and their shareholders, higher prices are a boon. The energy sector is the only slice of the S&P 500 in the green for 2022, having gained 51%. The second-best performer: Utilities, down 5.6% this year.