브라질 선거. 그 폭풍의 전야 (NYT)

아래 글은 브라질 저널리스트의 오피니언을 가져온 것이다. 글은 보우소나로에 대한 일관된 뉴욕타임즈 논조를 벗어나지 않고 그를 브라질의 환경을 파괴하는 지구의 암덩어리이자 민주화를 저해하는 세력 그리고 코로나사태의 방역실패를 야기한 살인마로 비판하고 있다. 그리고 보우소나로를 증오하는 그들에게는 곧 몇일 후면, 고대하고 고대하던 보우소나로를 권좌 밖으로 쫓아낼 수 있는 시간을 맞게 된다. 오는 일요일에 전 대통령이자 좌파를 지지하는 국민들의 영웅 룰라가 50퍼센트 이상의 득표율을 보이면 브라질 국민은 대통령 보우소나로와는 영원한 작별을 하게된다. 그 게 여의치 않더라도 10월 30일에 2차선거를 통해 룰라가 다수표를 받으면 보우소나로를 몰아내고 브라질의 새 대통령이 되게 되는 것이다. 물론 룰라가 선거에서 이긴다면 말이다. 

브라질에 살면서 지난 4년간 정치적인 이슈로 하루도 편할 날이 없었던 것이 사실이다. 보우소나로가 포퓰리스트에 가까운 우파 진영에 있다보니 좌파진보일색인 국내외 언론들이 그의 일거수 일투족에 대해 비판적인 논조의 기사를 쏟아 냈다. 그 중에 적절한 비판도 있었고, 지나치게 그를 악마화한 부분도 있었다. 그에 대한 기사는 가짜 뉴스라고 하여도 비판적인 논조만 있으면 반보우소나로 지지자들의 지지를 받고, 사실인 것으로 받아들여졌다. 다른 말로하면 대다수의 언론이 지난 4년간 보우소나로에 대해 비판적인 기사만 만들어 냈으며, 그 중에는 맞는 것도 있고 그렇지 않거나 과장된 것도 많았다는 사실이다. 

 

이렇게 보우소나로가 연일 계속되는 언론 몰이로 악마화가 되어가는 중에 반대급부적으로 그의 열성적인 지지자 역시 많이 생겨났다. 즉 중도파로 분류되는 중간지대가 점점 사라지고, 반 보우소나로 아니면 친 보우소나로로 분위기가 굳어진 것이다. 결국 정치적인 입장 차이로 인해 이전에 볼 수없던 높은 수위의 수많은 논쟁들과 분쟁들이 일반 시민들 사이에도 확산이 되었고, 보우소나로와 함께한 4년이 지난 지금, 그 동안 정치적인 논쟁으로 시달린 스트레스로 인해 많은 사람들에게 정치적인 이슈를 이야기하는 것이 금기시 되었다. 나 역시 나의 정치적인 입장을 밝히는 것이 조심스럽고 선과 악의 대결로 변질되어 버린 브라질의 현재의 정치 상황은 비생산적이며 국가의 극단적인 분열을 조장하고 있다고 평가한다. 

 

오는 10월 이번 대통령 선거를 통해 어떤 결과가 찾아오든, 이미 극단적인 분열로 인해 미움과 증오의 꽃이 만개한 이 나라에 관용과 회복의 시간이 찾아 오기를 간절히 바란다. 

 

 

원문 https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/30/opinion/brazil-election-bolsonaro-lula.html

 

SÃO PAULO, Brazil — “If it’s God’s will, I will continue,” Jair Bolsonaro said in mid-September. “If it’s not, I’ll take off the presidential sash and I will retire.”

It feels too good to be true. After all, Mr. Bolsonaro has spent much of the year casting doubt on the electoral process and seemingly preparing the ground to reject the results. The military, ominously, wants to conduct a parallel counting of the votes. Menace hangs in the air: 67 percent of Brazilians fear political violence, and some may not risk voting at all (a big deal in a country where voting is mandatory). Talk of a coup is everywhere.

Amid this uncertainty, there’s one fact to cling to: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s leftist former president, leads in the polls, with 50 percent of intended votes to Mr. Bolsonaro’s 36 percent. Four years after he was expelled from the political scene, on corruption and money laundering charges later shown to be at best procedurally dubious and at worst politically motivated, Mr. da Silva is back to complete the job. On all available evidence, he is poised to win: if not outright on Sunday, by taking more than 50 percent, then on the election’s second round, on Oct. 30.

We Brazilians are holding our breath. The next few weeks could end a dark period, overseen by one of the worst leaders in our history, or they could usher us even further into catastrophe and despair. It’s all a bit much to take in. I’ve personally decided to spend more time sleeping and cleaning the house — the drapes have never been so white (they were originally beige). Yet no matter how much I distract myself, nothing can relieve me from the apprehension that something may go terribly wrong.

 

On the surface, things seem calm. An outsider walking through the streets would not get the impression that a presidential election is about to be held. Looking out the window, I notice that the Brazilian flags — which have come to represent support for Mr. Bolsonaro — have been removed from the neighboring facades. An ambiguous sign: It could be a pre-emptive response to defeat, or the calm before the storm. There’s not even much talk among friends and family concerning the election; the lines were drawn in 2018 and have not moved much since then.

Yet for all the social polarization, there is still enormous support for democracy here: 75 percent of citizens think it is better than any other form of government. Right from the beginning, Mr. da Silva has been trying to exploit that common feeling and open up a broad front against Mr. Bolsonaro. He picked a former adversary from the center-right, Geraldo Alckmin, as his running mate; assiduously courted business leaders; and secured endorsements from prominent centrists. In this comradely atmosphere, supporters of the center-left candidate, Ciro Gomes, currently about 6 percent in polls, may even throw their votes behind the former president. If that happens, Mr. Bolsonaro will surely be beaten.

That glorious prospect does little to dispel the anxiety enveloping the country. It’s physically impossible not to dwell on what might happen. The possibilities are terrifying: The polls might be wrong, and Mr. Bolsonaro could win. The polls might be right, and Mr. Bolsonaro could refuse to concede defeat, and even initiate a coup. Each day now seems to be the length of a day on Venus — around 5,832 hours — to go by the agitation of my Twitter feed.

There’s simply too much at stake. For one, there’s the democratic process itself, which has been put through the wringer by Mr. Bolsonaro. For another, there’s the future of our judiciary. Just next year, there will be two vacant seats on the Supreme Court, out of a total of 11 seats. If in power, Mr. Bolsonaro would surely seize the chance to make pick hard-right justices as he did with his last two appointees. A Trump-style remaking of the judiciary could be coming down the line.

Then there’s the environment. So far this year, more forest fires have been recorded in the Brazilian Amazon than in all of 2021, which was already catastrophic enough. Since the start of September, dense plumes of smoke have covered several Brazilian states. Under Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration, deforestation has increased, environmental agencies have been dismantled and Indigenous deaths have risen. Reversing these disastrous environmental policies could not be more urgent.

 

What’s more, a new government could address the appalling fate of the 33 million people living in a state of food deprivation and hunger — to say nothing of the 62.9 million people (or 29 percent of the population) living below the poverty line. It could also draw down the number of firearms on our streets, which, under Mr. Bolsonaro’s watch, has reached the troublingly high figure of 1.9 million. And, at last, Brazilians might begin to heal from the trauma of 685,000 Covid-19 deaths.

But before all that, there’s a necessary first step: pushing Jair Bolsonaro into retirement. Then we can begin to breathe again.