펜데믹 기간중 국가별 사망율 추이 변화 (NYT)

원문 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/05/23/health/covid-death-toll-world.html

 

WHO에서 “Estimating global and country-specific excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic,”라는제목으로 발표한 내용을 기사화 한 것이다. 각국가별 대응에 따라 사망자 수의 차이가 있었던 것으로 보이고 선진국들의 펜데믹 시기의 사망률추이는 중진국과 저개발국가들에 비해 현저히 낮은 것으로 나타났다. 상식적으로 행정 및 보건의료시스템의 차이에서 기인하였을 것이다. 또한 봉쇄조치등으로 세계의경제 주체들이 어려움에 처했을 때, 선진국은 상대적으로 더 큰 재정지원을 통해 개인들의 삶이 붕괴되는 것을 막은 것도 사망률을 낮추는 데에 어느 정도 기여를 하지 않았을까 판단한다. 중진국이 저개발 국가 보다 사망률이 오히려 높은 것으로 나오는 것이 의하한 부분인데, WHO에서는 저개발국가의 자료에 신빙성이 떨어진다고 판단했으며, 정보의 투명도 및 정확도가 상대적으로 낮은 국가들이 많을 것으로 판단되므로 어느 정도 일리가 있다고 본다. 하지만, 페루같은 나라를 볼 때 국가의 경제적 상황보다도 전염병의 창궐의 여부가 더 큰 상관관계가 있을 고려해 볼가 있다.

Where Death Rates Rose the Most During the Pandemic

 

The United States had more deaths above normal levels during the pandemic than most other wealthy countries, according to data released by the World Health Organization this month. U.S. deaths were 15 percent above normal — a number surpassed by only four other large countries in the same income group: Chile, the Czech Republic, Poland and Romania.

 

Globally, many poorer and developing countries fared worse than the wealthiest ones, but deaths in the United States rose even higher than in several countries with far fewer resources, including Argentina and the Philippines.

Throughout the pandemic, the United States and other wealthy countries have had access to the lion’s share of lifesaving supplies such as vaccines, antiviral treatments, masks and testing kits. While most rich countries also have a relatively older and more vulnerable segment of their population, they also had access to economic support and policies.

Some of the countries with the largest increase in death rates during the first two years of the pandemic were those in the upper-middle-income group: Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. But many countries with the lowest income — including most African countries — are not included in the charts because their data is less reliable.

Some countries struggled more than others to accurately count pandemic-related deaths. W.H.O. figures show by just how much. The global toll is more than twice the number of Covid-19 deaths reported in official government calculations worldwide.

In the wealthiest countries, the gap between reported Covid-19 deaths and estimated total deaths above normal was small, perhaps because of the relatively lower number of deaths as well as existing infrastructure around death reporting.

But among upper-middle- and low- or lower-middle-income countries, the number of deaths above normal estimated by the W.H.O. was often many times larger than the number of reported deaths.

Across the world, about 13 percent — or 15 million more people — died than expected in the first two years of the pandemic.

 

These latest estimates by the W.H.O. are what many scientists say are the most reliable gauge of the total impact of the pandemic so far. The figures — often called excess deaths — measure the difference between the number of people who died in 2020 and 2021 and the number of people who would have been expected to die during that time if the pandemic had not happened. They include those who died from Covid-19 without having been tested as well as from other preventable illnesses when hospitals were overwhelmed with virus patients.

 

In countries like Australia, China and Japan, the number of deaths in 2020 and 2021 estimated by the W.H.O. was actually lower than normal. The W.H.O. said that some countries may have seen decreased mortality from other causes as a result of Covid-19 control measures. And because the W.H.O. relied on the death and population statistics reported in part by government agencies, some numbers could be underestimated in countries with poor reporting.

Here’s a look at how much death rates exceeded normal levels in countries with populations over 10 million: