전쟁과 식량위기의 상관관계(BBC)

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The war in Ukraine will deliver a shock to the global supply and cost of food, the boss of one of the world's biggest fertiliser companies has said. Yara International, which operates in more than 60 countries, buys considerable amounts of essential raw materials from Russia. Fertiliser prices were already high due to soaring wholesale gas prices.

Yara's boss, Svein Tore Holsether, has warned the situation could get even tougher. "Things are changing by the hour," he told the BBC.

 

Russia and Ukraine are some of the biggest producers in agriculture and food globally. Russia also produces enormous amounts of nutrients, like potash and phosphate - key ingredients in fertilisers, which enable plants and crops to grow. "Half the world's population gets food as a result of fertilisers... and if that's removed from the field for some crops, [the yield] will drop by 50%," Mr Holsether said. "For me, it's not whether we are moving into a global food crisis - it's how large the crisis will be."

His company has already been affected by the conflict after a missile hit Yara's office in Kyiv. The 11 staff were unharmed. The Norwegian-based company isn't directly affected by sanctions against Russia, but is having to deal with the fall-out. Trying to secure deliveries has become more difficult due to disruption in the shipping industry. Just hours after Mr Holsether spoke to the BBC, the Russian government urged its producers to halt fertiliser exports. He pointed out that about a quarter of the key nutrients used in European food production come from Russia.

Nutrients aren't the only factor to consider, either. Huge amounts of natural gas are needed to produce ammonia, the key ingredient in nitrogen fertiliser. Yara International relies on vast quantities of Russian gas for its European plants. Combined with higher shipping rates, sanctions on Belarus (another major potash supplier) and extreme weather - this prompted a big jump in fertiliser prices last year, adding to a surge in food prices.

But Yara's boss says the world must, in the long-term, reduce its dependency on Russia for global food production. "On the one hand, we're trying to keep fertiliser flowing to the farmers to keep up the agricultural yields. "At the same time... there has to be a strong reaction. We condemn the Russian military invasion of Ukraine so this is a dilemma and one that frankly is very difficult."

Climate change and growing populations had already been adding to the challenges the global food production system faces - all before the pandemic started "We have to keep in mind that in the last two years, there's been an increase of 100 million more people that go to bed hungry... so for this to come on top of it is really worrying."

 

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https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60623941